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💰Macroeconomics and Tax Policy: What Drives the Construction Business in 2025

Macroeconomic forecasts and tax-related issues were thoroughly discussed during the meeting of the CBU Committee on financial, banking and investment activities on April 29, 2025.

💬“At the latest meeting of the NBU Monetary Committee, the key policy rate — as well as other monetary instruments — remained unchanged. Moreover, there’s a clear signal that any sharp correction in the coming months is unlikely. This is an important indication that inflation no longer poses a systemic threat to the economy, and the NBU has strong confidence in its decline in the second half of this year. The key takeaway: the monetary measures taken between December and March have proven effective and timely, enabling growth in key economic sectors — among which construction holds a prominent place,” emphasized Serhii Mamedov, Head of the CBU Committee on financial, banking and investment activity, Deputy Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Confederation of Builders of Ukraine, and Chairman of the Board of GLOBUS BANK, a member of the Board of Directors of the CBU.

👤Vasyl Furman, Member of the Council of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), presented the NBU’s Macroeconomic Forecast as of April 2025.

He highlighted cautious economic growth in 2025 — at a rate of 3.1%, with the prospect of further gradual expansion in 2026–2027. However, he noted that growth is nearing the potential limits of the Ukrainian economy, indicating constraints to faster development under current conditions. In his view, this level is insufficient for rapid convergence with Eastern European countries, even if the war ends. At the same time, the current environment provides a foundation for confident investment and active business participation in reconstruction and economic strengthening.

In March, inflation in Ukraine reached 14.6% year-over-year. Key drivers included rising business costs, energy price increases, and lingering effects of last year’s harvests. External inflationary pressure remains moderate, with demand from trade partners gradually recovering.

🏛️Ukraine’s economic recovery will continue but remain constrained due to the consequences of war — particularly labor shortages, damaged infrastructure, and trade tensions. In 2026–2027, real GDP is expected to grow to 3.7–3.9%, supported by reconstruction investment and consumer demand, while demographic trends will limit potential growth. The NBU will maintain the key policy rate at 15.5% to achieve its 5% inflation target, with a return to monetary easing expected once inflation risks subside.

👤Dmitriy Mikhailenko, Chairman of the Supervisory Board at Crowe Mikhailenko,, member of the Board of Directors of the CBU, outlined in detail the range of tax challenges faced by the Ukrainian construction business during his speech.

Among the key topics were taxation during the sale of property rights (future real estate objects) on the secondary market, particularly the specifics of determining the personal income tax base and applying arm’s length pricing for VAT purposes. The discussion also covered the potential use of forward and futures contracts in such transactions to determine the fair market value.

Special attention was given to the application of the “last event” rule in cases where payments under long-term contracts are made from the state budget, as well as the complex methodology of input VAT allocation when both residential and commercial construction are carried out simultaneously. Equally pressing are the issues of applying benefits under state housing orders and the risks of tax invoice suspension.

The expert emphasized the need for a systemic approach to resolving these issues, as tax uncertainty significantly complicates planning and hinders the industry’s development.

The tax matters raised sparked lively discussion among the meeting participants. Experts shared real cases and their own experiences.

Several ideas and considerations were voiced regarding possible ways to improve current approaches. Based on what was discussed, participants will formulate general conclusions and recommendations, which could serve as a foundation for further steps at the industry level. Follow-up work on specific issues is expected after the discussion.

💬“Our task is to offer solutions. We are glad to see so many law firms willing to share their expertise and propose optimal approaches. The Confederation is open to active work on the issues that concern the construction business,” emphasized Oleksandr Chervak.

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